Friday, December 10, 2010

PR after Week 13

Before I start, all of everything is done with the database having no knowledge of what happened on Thursday nights. It's just too short of a turn around for me to get it up before Thursday.


The calculations had a pretty good week 13. Here are the results from what was predicted.


STL over ARI (778) HIT
NO over  CIN (732) HIT
PHI over HOU (683) HIT
GB over SF (604) HIT
KC over DEN (583) HIT
IND over DAL (536) MISS
ATL over TB (444) HIT
CHI over DET (390) HIT
CLE over MIA (359) HIT
TEN over JAC (341) MISS
SEA over CAR (222) HIT
SD over OAK (182) MISS
MIN over BUF (101) HIT
NYG over WSH (85) HIT
NE over NYJ (37) HIT
PIT over BAL (17) HIT


I don't know why this thing loves Tennessee so much, it's two weeks now that it's picked Tennessee as the better team. This will need some investigation.


Here are the power rankings after Week 12:
 32 CAR 0.013 
 31 BUF 0.039 
 30 ARI 0.051 
 29 CIN 0.139 
 28 HOU 0.142 
 27 DEN 0.177 
 26 SEA 0.232 
 25 MIN 0.236 
 24 DAL 0.267 
 23 WSH 0.271 
 22 TB 0.278 
 21 SF 0.322 
 20 DET 0.333 
 19 JAC 0.427 
 18 MIA 0.443 
 17 SD 0.453 
 16 OAK 0.519 
 15 TEN 0.529 
 14 NYG 0.593 
 13 IND 0.627 
 12 CHI 0.645 
 11 ATL 0.691 
 10 NYJ 0.698 
 9 CLE 0.816 
 8 STL 0.846 
 7 PIT 0.861 
 6 KC 0.865 
 5 PHI 0.881 
 4 NE 0.898 
 3 BAL 0.925 
 2 NO 0.936 
 1 GB 0.958 


I changed the prediction algorithm just a little bit, let's see if it works any better. Again from most confident to least:


BAL over HOU (835)
ATL over CAR (781)
CLE over BUF (754)
PIT over CIN (624)
GB over DET (535)
PHI over DAL (467)
KC over SD (409)
TB over WSH (267)
NYJ over MIA (238)
NYG over MIN (222)
NE over CHI (129)
DEN over ARI (124)
IND over TEN (123)
JAC over OAK (009)


A couple things to note: The system doesn't seem as confident in its picks as it has been in the previous two weeks. Secondly, it is picking a lot of road winners. And since it has no knowledge of Home/Away, I suspect it will do pretty badly this week. Let's see.

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