2011 Power Rankings: Week 5

Last week didn't go particularly well, especially against the spread. The predictor was 8-5 picking straight winners, and a coin flip (6-6-1) against the spread. Not very impressive. Here is what happened with the picks:

Away Team	Home Team	Chance of Away Win	Outcome	Spread against Away Team	Chance of Away Cover	Outcome
KAN	IND	48.2	Correct	2	52	Missed
ARI	MIN	48.7	Missed	2.5	54	Correct
PHI	BUF	38.7	Missed	-3	33	Missed
OAK	HOU	35.8	Missed	5.5	46	Missed
NOR	CAR	57.5	Correct	-6.5	45	Correct
CIN	JAC	54.8	Missed	2	59	Missed
TEN	PIT	49.9	Missed	3	56	Correct
SEA	NYG	27.4	Correct	10	46	Correct
TAM	SFO	39.1	Correct	3	45	Correct
NYJ	NWE	26.6	Correct	9	43	PUSH
SDG	DEN	50.3	Correct	-4	42	Missed
GNB	ATL	57.3	Correct	-6	45	Missed
CHI	DET	28.1	Correct	5	37	Correct

Here are the picks for this week. Based on Saturday afternoon spreads. Let's try it again one more time, but I might have to mess around more with the regression model for predicting against the spread.

Away Team	Home Team	Chance of Away Win	Spread against Away Team	Chance of Away Cover
STL	GNB	21.2	14	46.0
JAC	PIT	37.7	12.5	62.3
PHI	WAS	32.1	-3	26.9
SFO	DET	38.4	4	46.2
CAR	ATL	41.0	4	48.9
IND	CIN	36.2	7	49.9
BUF	NYG	49.3	3	55.2
HOU	BAL	44.9	8	60.7
CLE	OAK	40.8	6.5	53.7
DAL	NWE	32.9	6.5	45.3
NOR	TAM	61.0	-5.5	50.2
MIN	CHI	53.5	2.5	58.4
MIA	NYJ	44.7	7	58.6

The picks are heavily favoring the home teams this week. Something to keep an eye on perhaps.

Now finally the rankings:

Rank	Team	Rating	Win - Loss	Last Week
32	STL	0.021	0-4	32
31	MIA	0.072	0-4	31
30	IND	0.095	0-5	30
29	KAN	0.114	2-3	28
28	DEN	0.134	1-4	26
27	CAR	0.161	1-4	25
26	SEA	0.202	2-3	29
25	JAC	0.207	1-4	27
24	NYJ	0.216	2-3	22
23	ARI	0.252	1-4	18
22	PHI	0.270	1-4	17
21	CLE	0.288	2-2	24
20	TAM	0.296	3-2	16
19	CHI	0.334	2-3	15
18	ATL	0.378	2-3	21
17	CIN	0.461	3-2	19
16	TEN	0.557	3-2	7
15	MIN	0.563	1-4	23
14	NYG	0.570	3-2	8
13	DAL	0.606	2-2	14
12	PIT	0.636	3-2	20
11	OAK	0.723	3-2	12
10	WAS	0.779	3-1	6
9	SDG	0.790	4-1	13
8	NOR	0.818	4-1	11
7	BUF	0.848	4-1	10
6	SFO	0.857	4-1	9
5	BAL	0.858	3-1	4
4	HOU	0.908	3-2	3
3	DET	0.910	5-0	5
2	GNB	0.959	5-0	1
1	NWE	0.978	4-1	2

Just hurried to get this up, will get more into it next week possibly.

2011 Power Rankings: Week 4

Quickly the rankings:

Rank	Team	Rating	Win - Loss
32	STL	0.011	0-4
31	MIA	0.051	0-4
30	IND	0.068	0-4
29	SEA	0.075	1-3
28	KAN	0.092	1-3
27	JAC	0.204	1-3
26	DEN	0.228	1-3
25	CAR	0.260	1-3
24	CLE	0.272	2-2
23	MIN	0.340	0-4
22	NYJ	0.357	2-2
21	ATL	0.369	2-2
20	PIT	0.412	2-2
19	CIN	0.422	2-2
18	ARI	0.432	1-3
17	PHI	0.442	1-3
16	TAM	0.490	3-1
15	CHI	0.503	2-2
14	DAL	0.630	2-2
13	SDG	0.663	3-1
12	OAK	0.677	2-2
11	NOR	0.712	3-1
10	BUF	0.728	3-1
9	SFO	0.730	3-1
8	NYG	0.745	3-1
7	TEN	0.768	3-1
6	WAS	0.815	3-1
5	DET	0.843	4-0
4	BAL	0.893	3-1
3	HOU	0.952	3-1
2	NWE	0.960	3-1
1	GNB	0.973	4-0

And for the first time, projections (based on Thursday night spreads):

Away Team	Home Team	Chance of Away Win	Spread against Away Team	Chance of Away Cover
TEN	PIT	49.9	3	56
SEA	NYG	27.4	10	46
CIN	JAC	54.8	2	59
NOR	CAR	57.5	-6.5	45
OAK	HOU	35.8	5.5	46
PHI	BUF	38.7	-3	33
KAN	IND	48.2	2	52
ARI	MIN	48.7	2.5	54
TAM	SFO	39.1	3	45
NYJ	NWE	26.6	9	43
SDG	DEN	50.3	-4	42
GNB	ATL	57.3	-6	45
CHI	DET	28.1	5	37